Second Deposit LDP
8. Strategic Growth and Spatial Options
Growth Options
8.1 To inform the future direction of population and household growth within Carmarthenshire for the revised LDP period 2018-2033, the Council has undertaken a review of demographic and household formation patterns for the Plan area. A Population and Household Forecast Paper (2018) was published as part of the evidence base for the Preferred Strategy, and a further addendum (2019) was published with the 1st Deposit LDP. These papers identified a growth requirement of 8,835 dwellings during the Plan period. This was based on an alternative 10yr projection scenario and utilised a vacancy rate of 3.4%.
8.2 The 2nd Deposit LDP utilises the WG 2018-based subnational projections as the principal set of projections, and evidential work has been prepared to further understand demographic scenario outcomes of population-led and employment-led growth options in light of changing circumstances. Each scenario is considered against a vacancy rate of 3.8% in light of Council Tax records published by Welsh Government.
8.3 The 2022 Population and Economic Growth Paper places a significant emphasis on the links between population growth and estimated employment growth. This is correlated by identifying how population growth and variances in the labour force and demographics supports job opportunities and economic growth. The headlines of the entire collection of demographic growth options are considered below.
1st Deposit LDP Preferred Scenario
8.4 The headline figures for the PG10 yr scenario which was used as the preferred growth option for the 1st Deposit is identified in the table below.
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +15,115
Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +8,538
New Homes requirement: 8,835 homes
Jobs Creation Value: 354 jobs per year
Conclusion
This scenario is now based on dated information which utilised the WG-2014 based projections as a starting point.
2nd Deposit LDP
8.5 The following tables provide a summary of the household growth options considered as part of the updated evidence.
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +6,197
New homes requirement: + 291 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 4,359 homes
Jobs creation value per annum: +201
Conclusion:
Using this growth trend for Carmarthenshire's Revised LDP would adversely impact upon the Council's strategic ambitions from both an economic and social perspective. The homes and jobs growth scenario from the principal 2018-based projection would result in significantly less growth than identified in the historic build rates since 2007. This would result in the annual homes requirement being 42% lower than the historic trend on completions.
Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the principal WG 2018-based projection for the Revised LDP.
Using this scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
WG 2018-based "High Population" Variant
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +9,460
New homes requirement: + 378 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 5,670 homes
Jobs creation value per annum: +257
Conclusion:
This scenario utilises the principal WG 2018-based projection but additionally inputs high fertility, life expectancy and migration assumptions into the model. The new homes requirement significantly falls below the rate of provision recorded in the historic trends. This would result in the annual homes requirement being 24.5% lower than the historic trend on completions.
The job creation figure (although greater than the principal Projection) would still show weaker economic growth.
Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the High Projection scenario as the growth option for the revised LDP. It would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
Ten-year trend-based projection
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +14,468
New homes requirement: + 588 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 8,822
Jobs creation value per annum: +276
Conclusion:
This scenario rebases the principal Welsh Government projection to take into account two further years of known data and increases the length of the trend period to 10 years.
On balance, utilising this scenario would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. This would result in the annual homes requirement being 17.3% higher than the historic trend on completions. It would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth and contribute to supporting the economic ambitions of the county.
Fifteen-year trend-based projection
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +15,854
New homes requirement: + 618 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 9,272
Jobs creation value per annum: +353
Conclusion:
This scenario rebases the principal Welsh Government projection to take into account two further years of known data and increases the length of the trend period to 15 years.
On balance, utilising this scenario would provide a positive outlook for housing growth and job creation. This would result in the annual homes requirement being 23.3% higher than the historic trend on completions. It is considered however that the requirement of 618 new homes per year is slightly in excess of the Plan's housing growth potential.
Using this scenario would assist in delivering the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives
Baseline employment-led scenario
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +16,407
New homes requirement: + 662 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 9,933
Jobs creation value per annum: +337
Conclusion:
This scenario utilises the baseline Experian data and the principal projection to correlate job creation to household growth.
Whilst this scenario would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement through the Baseline employment-led scenario would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy. This scenario would result in the annual homes requirement being 32.1% higher than the historic trend on completions
This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
Projected population change between 2018-2033: +17,635
New homes requirement: + 697 per year
New Homes requirement during the plan period: 10,461
Jobs creation value per annum: +401
Conclusion:
This scenario rebases the principal Welsh Government projection to take into account two further years of known data but keeps the duration of the trend to 5 years.
Whilst this scenario would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement would result in an undeliverable growth strategy particularly given that it would result in the annual homes requirement being 39.1% higher than the historic trend on completions.
Identifying the Preferred Strategic Growth Option
8.6 The identification of the strategic growth option has emerged from the consideration of the above population and household projections, as a consequence of pre-deposit engagement and the need to reach a balanced outcome including other strategies and plans such as, but not limited to:
- Welsh Government - Planning Policy Wales;
- The Council's Strategic Regeneration Plan 2015 – 2030 – Transformations;
- Swansea Bay City Deal;
- The Council's New Corporate Strategy 2018 – 2023;
- The Carmarthenshire Well-being Plan: the Carmarthenshire we want 2018-2033;
- The Council's Well-being Objectives;
- The Council's Affordable Housing Delivery Plan; and
- Local Housing Market Assessment[38];
- The Council's Moving Forward in Carmarthenshire: the next 5 years;
- Moving Rural Carmarthenshire Forward; and,
- Carmarthenshire Economic Recovery Plan (April 2021).
8.7 It is proposed to use the ten-year based projection from Turley's Housing and Economic Growth Report and utilise the Council Taxvacancy rate of 3.8% to underpin the future growth requirements for this revised LDP. This projects an overall population increase of 14,468 with the requirement for 8,822 new homes over the revised LDP period 2018-2033. This equates to 588 new homes per year. This scenario will assist in the delivery of the Swansea Bay City Region Deal and the Council's Corporate Strategy, regeneration and job creation objectives.
8.8 Utilising this preferred option would positively progress the Council's ambitions in delivering affordable homes across the County.
Spatial Options
8.9 This section outlines a number of possible Spatial Options which have been identified to inform the selection of our future spatial framework and how future growth may then be distributed across the County for the Plan period.
8.10 The consideration of strategic options is an important part in the preparation of the LDP is a requirement of the SA/SEA process.
8.11 Each spatial option has been subject to engagement to assess and evaluate their appropriateness with a view to establishing or developing a preferred option. Their content reflects the need to have regard to legislation, national planning policy, local and regional strategies whilst recognising the specific characteristics, assets and issues which are prevalent in Carmarthenshire and form a strategic approach which delivers on the vision and which promotes and guides development for the County.
8.12 In developing the options regard has also been had to the Well-Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the wellbeing objectives developed by Carmarthenshire County Council and the Public Service Board.
8.13 It should be noted that option generation is an important requirement of the SEA directive. The strategic options have been assessed against the SA/SEA within the Initial Sustainability Appraisal – Strategic Environmental Assessment Report. This forms an important component in the process of selecting the most suitable strategic option for Carmarthenshire.
8.14 The options identified assume that housing development without employment opportunities in the same broad location, and vice versa, is less sustainable and is to be avoided. Similarly, infrastructure improvements need to be aligned with new development, including improvements to transport networks, utilities, green and blue infrastructure, health, education and social facilities. Consequently, the term 'development' is used in the Spatial Options for Growth to refer to the balance of housing, employment opportunities and the accompanying infrastructure.
8.15 No single option is necessarily considered preferable in their preparation and discussion and there is scope and flexibility for the options to be adapted to take account of additional factors. It is acknowledged that the preferred option could combine elements from more than one option.
8.16 The tables below provide an explanation of each of the spatial options as considered. This is followed by an identified Preferred Spatial Option.
Description
Utilising the settlement hierarchy to allow for a proportional distribution of development based on sustainability principles
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
This Option is based on the 4-tier settlement hierarchy.
Summary Assessment
This option focusses growth proportionally across a hierarchy underpinned by the principles of sustainability. In doing so, this option:
- Encourages the dispersal of employment, housing and other types of development to identified settlements and village groups or clusters in a manner reflective of their existing scale, population and of the availability of facilities and services.
- Reflects the diversity of the County and growth is apportioned appropriately to urban and rural areas.
- Focusses the majority of employment growth in the larger towns and villages.
Conclusion
This option represents a continuation of the existing LDP strategy and as such reference is had to the results of annual monitoring and the review report. Whilst both indicate successes in the application of the strategy they also identify weaknesses in the delivery of growth in aspects of the settlement hierarchy.
It is recognised that elements of the strategy have been successful however, it is also clear that a review and revised approach may be needed to address not only its shortcomings but contextual changes.
Description
Basing the majority of growth in the areas in the locality of the main highway and rail network and where there is infrastructure available to support the proposed development.
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
This Option identifies key settlements and corridors along the main transport routes and areas where there is infrastructure in place or planned to be in place to accommodate the levels of growth required.
Summary Assessment
This option looks at the existing provision of utility infrastructure and the highway network across the County and aims to focus the majority of growth in areas with the capacity for growth. This option seeks to encourage growth in the areas which it can most feasibly be accommodated by:
- Encouraging growth along the key transport routes and junctions of the M4, A40, A48, A484, A474 and A485 as well as in locations accessible to other modes of transport including the rail network, cycle network and pedestrian linkages.
- Encouraging growth in areas where there is either current or planned capacity for the supply and treatment of water and waste-water.
- Encouraging growth in areas where there are sufficient services and facilities to support the communities.
Conclusion
This option links growth and the settlement strategy directly to the availability of infrastructure. Whilst this would restrict the potential for growth in rural areas, it is recognised that the relationship between development and appropriate infrastructure provision is a component necessary as part of any selected option.
Description
No rationale or structure for the distribution of growth; development would be dispersed across the County.
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
All settlements could be affected equally under this Option as there is no strategy to identify the distribution of growth. However, this would be likely to result in levels of growth at a fairly equal level across the County's settlements.
Summary Assessment
This option distributes housing, employment and other forms of development on a broad basis between settlements within the County, both urban and rural. It allows settlements to grow incrementally without necessarily taking account of the availability of services or facilities nor the impact which growth could have upon the existing communities and their capacity to accommodate and absorb growth.
Compared to the strategy of the current adopted LDP, this option would see a higher proportion of the County's growth being directed to the rural areas and a lower proportion to the existing urban areas.
Conclusion
This represents a largely unsustainable option and undeliverable option - and one which as a consequence would be unlikely to pass the necessary measures as part of the SA/SEA assessment process. This option does however through its broad brush approach to distribution of growth focus additional growth in rural areas.
It is recognised that the chosen preferred option will be required to have appropriate regard to rural considerations.
Description
Development would be dispersed within community areas in a manner which reflects the role which settlements play within those areas and the wider geographical area.
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
The majority of the growth would be focussed in the following three areas: Carmarthen and surrounding area; Llanelli Coastal Belt; and Ammanford / Cross Hands area.
Summary Assessment
This option focusses on the role of settlements within their wider locality and community which acknowledges the relationships and interdependency between settlements and considers how the local communities work and live.
This option will encourage growth in those areas which play a significant role in the wider community; this is most likely to be through the provision of facilities and services rather than the existing scale of the settlement or the existing population numbers. This option would also seek to reflect the needs of the communities, including their demand for housing. This acknowledges the individual characteristics of each settlement and seeks to identify the role which settlements play within their locality and on a county-wide basis.
This option should reflect an understanding of the needs of local communities and focus growth in areas where it is needed to support communities and their aspirations for future growth and ongoing sustainability of facilities and services. This is likely to result in the allocation of smaller sites and a higher proportion of growth being directed to smaller settlements.
Conclusion
This option seeks to be more responsive to individual aspects of the County and their communities. Whilst the perceived focus of growth would be in established centres it affords opportunity to reflect a wider distribution.
Feedback indicates that the option would need to be appropriately balanced to ensure growth is distributed in an appropriate and deliverable manner.
Description
Focusses growth to align with the areas identified for Swansea Bay City Deal projects.
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
The majority of the growth would be focussed in the Llanelli and Carmarthen areas with those adjoining and adjacent areas also receiving a proportion of the growth.
Summary Assessment
This option is focussed on the projects and investment planned as part of the Swansea Bay City Deal and channels growth to align with these geographical areas. The projects proposed for Carmarthenshire are:
- Pentre Awel, Llanelli. This facility is a village providing facilities and services which promote and improve well-being. It is proposed to be a multi-faceted facility integrating business development, education, healthcare, leisure, tourism, wellness support and research in life-sciences in one location; and,
- Yr Egin, Carmarthen. This facility would be a new creative, digital and media hub to be based at the University of Wales Trinity St David
This Option is likely to see the majority of growth being focussed in Carmarthen and Llanelli and the surrounding areas, however, the settlements further away from Carmarthen and Llanelli may potentially see very little growth. It may provide opportunities for spin-off investments and entrepreneurship-based activities by building on the City Deal priorities.
Conclusion
This option embraces and is driven by the opportunities presented through the City Deal. It focuses on the locations of the 2 main projects within Carmarthenshire and as such would be less inclusive of the remainder of the County.
It should however be recognised that reflecting the potential of the City Deal to effect real change is essential in any preferred option.
Description
Focusses growth in the areas which have proven most popular with the housing market over recent years.
Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected
Growth would be focussed in the top tier of the adopted LDP's settlement hierarchy comprising Carmarthen, Llanelli and Ammanford / Cross Hands areas.
Summary Assessment
This option will aim to meet the aspirations and requirements of the development industry by identifying sites and areas which are the most economically attractive to develop. This option looks at the market success of settlements within the County since 2008 and apportions growth in accordance with past delivery rates.
The past delivery rates indicate that the majority of growth took place in the Llanelli area with a significant amount of development also being directed to the Carmarthen growth area and parts of the Ammanford/Cross Hands growth area.
This approach could be construed as 'planning based on numbers'. It would seek to direct growth in accordance with the highest delivery rates of the past and apply this trend to identify the location for future development. Future employment provision would reflect current take-up of employment land and would relate closely to the distribution of housing.
Conclusion
This option through its focus on the market would, whilst deliverable in a simplistic interpretation, be vulnerable to other considerations and constraints and would remove substantively any local influence. It is not considered a deliverable option in practicable terms but points clearly to the role of the market and development industry in contributing to a sound and deliverable plan.
The role of the market will inevitably be a contributing to the development of the preferred option.
The Preferred Spatial Option
8.17 The development of the preferred option has emerged from the consideration of the spatial options and other considerations, including but not limited to:
- the well-being objectives;
- the content of the Annual Monitoring Reports and Review Report; and,
- the engagement processes notably through the Key Stakeholder Forum.
8.18 In developing the preferred spatial option there was always an acceptance that there would be potential variations on the strategic options identified, including an option which would consider a mix of the positive outcomes from a number of those options. In considering the above, and having reference to the Issues, Objectives and Vision discussed earlier in the Preferred Strategy, a hybrid option emerged as the most appropriate approach in delivering a balanced and sustainable spatial strategy for all the communities across the County.
8.19 The following hybrid option has consequently emerged which reflects a number of characteristics from the identified options above. This emergence is in part, built from comments received as part of the engagement process.
Preferred Option - Balanced Community and Sustainable Growth Strategy
8.20 This hybrid option builds on the approach highlighted through Strategic Option 4 - Community Led but removes the prescriptive approach in assigning character areas within the County. The strategy will however retain an approach which reflects the role and function of settlements and will seek to be responsive in how it assigns growth, to urban and rural areas of the County.
- The option will recognise and reflect investment and economic benefits to the County and its communities through the City Deal, and other economic opportunities.
- It will seek to provide opportunities for rural areas ensuring the diversity of the County and communities is recognised;
- It will acknowledge that in delivering sustainable growth that it needs to be supported by the availability of a range of appropriate infrastructure;
- It will recognise that growth should be deliverable and orientated to a community's needs and market demand.
[38] Regional Local Housing Market Assessment was undertaken which will inform the revised LDP as it progresses through the preparatory process.