Deposit LDP
8. Strategic Growth and Spatial Options
8.1 To inform the future direction of population and household growth within Carmarthenshire for the revised LDP period 2018-2033, the Council has undertaken a review of demographic and household formation patterns for the Plan area. A Population and Household Forecast Paper (2018) was published as part of the evidence base for the Preferred Strategy, and a further addendum (2019) is published with this Deposit LDP. This addendum provides further demographic scenario outcomes of population-led and employment-led growth options in light of changing circumstances. Each scenario is considered against the 2011 Census vacancy rate, in addition to a variant vacancy rate calculated from Carmarthenshire's council tax records, which is calculated as 3.4%. This variant vacancy rate has been determined to be the most appropriate figure to be used within the demographic scenarios.
8.2 The Population and Household Forecast Paper also identifies the links between population growth and estimated employment growth. This is correlated by identifying how population growth and variances in the labour force and demographics supports job opportunities and economic growth. The entire collection of demographic growth options are considered below.
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WG 2014-based Projection (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +3,207 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +3,254 New Homes requirement: 3,367 homes Jobs Creation Value per annum: -55 jobs Conclusion Using this growth trend for Carmarthenshire's LDP would adversely impact upon the Council's strategic ambitions from both an economic and social perspective. Furthermore given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the WG 2014-based projection. Using this scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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WG 2014-based (10 year average migration) Projection (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +10,842 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +6,322 New Homes requirement: 6,542 homes Jobs Creation Value: 198 jobs per year Conclusion Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise both variant scenarios of the WG 2014-based (10 year average migration) projection as the growth option for the revised LDP. It would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. Both variant scenarios would limit Carmarthenshire's economic ambitions in terms of job creation and keeping younger adults within the County to live and work. |
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Population Growth Short Term (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +10,691 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +6,807 New Homes requirement: 7,044 homes Jobs Creation Value: 126 jobs per year Conclusion Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the PG Short Term projection as the growth option for the Revised LDP. It would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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Population Growth 10yr (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +11,755 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +6,992 New Homes requirement: 7,236 homes Jobs Creation Value: 178 jobs per year Conclusion Whilst the delivery of 497 or 482 dwellings per year is similar to that delivered since 2007, it does not offer the flexibility to pick up on those years where housing delivery and the housing market has been more buoyant. Since 2015, housing delivery has been on average 545 dwellings per year and restricting the housing requirement through this scenario would limit Carmarthenshire's economic ambitions in terms of job creation and provide opportunities for younger adults within the County to live and work. This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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Population Growth Long Term (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +17,567 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +9,555 New Homes requirement: 9,887 homes Jobs Creation Value: 353 jobs per year Conclusion On balance, utilising this scenario would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. It would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth and support the economic ambitions of the county. Whilst utilising a scenario with higher population growth will see a continuation of people aged 15-19 leaving the county, more return in the 20-24 age cohort which results in a balanced demographic outlook for the county in the future. Using this scenario would assist in delivering the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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Population Growth Pre-Recession Scenario (2018 Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +26,811 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +13,616 New Homes requirement: 14,090 homes Jobs Creation Value: 632 jobs per year Conclusion Utilising this projection scenario for the revised LDP would be commensurate to the growth strategy within the adopted LDP. Whilst this scenario would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement through the PG Pre-Recession scenario would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy. This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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PG Long Term (2019 Addendum Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +17,881 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +9,726 New Homes requirement: 10,065 homes Jobs Creation Value: 439 jobs per year Conclusion This projection would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. The increase in migration to Carmarthenshire evidenced in the 2018 mid-year estimates slightly increases both the population and household projection from that considered in the PG Long Term 2018 report scenario. The housing requirement numbers are not markedly different from those considered the favoured option in the Preferred Strategy, and it would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth and support the economic ambitions of the county. Whilst utilising a scenario with higher population growth will see a continuation of people aged 15-19 leaving the county, more return in the 20-24 age cohort which results in a balanced demographic outlook for the county in the future. Using this scenario would assist in delivering the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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PG 10yr (2019 Addendum Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +15,115 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +8,538 New Homes requirement: 8,835 homes Jobs Creation Value: 354 jobs per year Conclusion On balance, utilising this scenario would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. It would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth and support the economic ambitions of the county. The relationship between job creation and population increase is more positive than the scenario identified within the Preferred Strategy as the household requirement is lower, with the proportional growth of the working age population being higher. Whilst utilising a scenario with higher population growth will see a continuation of people aged 15-19 leaving the county, more return in the 20-24 age cohort which results in a balanced demographic outlook for the county in the future. Using this scenario would assist in delivering the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
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PG Short Term (2019 Addendum Report) Projected population change between 2018-2033: +14,133 Projected Household change between 2018-2033: +8,474 New Homes requirement: 8,769 homes Jobs Creation Value: 288 jobs per year Conclusion On balance, utilising this scenario would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. It would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth, but has a lesser impact on supporting the economic ambitions of the county than other scenarios. A job creation value of 288 jobs per year, or 4,320 jobs over the LDP period would not meet the ambitions of the Council's Regeneration Plan. The PG Short Term scenario in the 2019 is much higher than that considered in the 2018 report as it uses a 4 years of data instead of 6 years. This shows the volatility of trends based assumption over a shorter time period. This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives. |
8.3 Two further options were considered as a basis for considering housing growth within the County. These focused on employment led scenarios namely: Commuting Ratio Fixed (CR Fixed) and Commuting Ratio Reducing (CR Reducing). These sought to deliver growth options based on a benchmark job requirement which comes from the Carmarthenshire Employment Sectoral Study.
8.4 Utilising the employment-led scenarios would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy for the county with both options eclipsing the housing growth requirement set out in the adopted LDP (19,690 and 17,396 dwellings respectively).
8.5 Whilst these scenarios would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy. These scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives
Identifying the Preferred Strategic Growth Option
8.6 The identification of the strategic growth option has emerged from the consideration of the above population and household projections, as a consequence of pre-deposit engagement and the need to reach a balanced outcome including other strategies and plans such as, but not limited to:
- Welsh Government - Planning Policy Wales;
- The Council's Strategic Regeneration Plan 2015 – 2030 – Transformations;
- Swansea Bay City Deal;
- The Council's New Corporate Strategy 2018 – 2023;
- The Carmarthenshire Well-being Plan: the Carmarthenshire we want 2018-2033;
- The Council's Well-being Objectives;
- The Council's Affordable Housing Delivery Plan; and
- Local Housing Market Assessment[26], and
- The Council's Moving Forward in Carmarthenshire: the next 5 years.
8.7 It is proposed to use the PG 10yr scenario from the 2019 Edge Analytics Report and utilise the alternative vacancy rate of 3.4% to underpin the future growth requirements for this revised LDP. This scenario identifies the population and household growth outside the Brecon Beacons National Park Area and projects an overall population increase of 15,115 (8.1%), with the requirement for 8,835 new homes over the revised LDP period 2018-2033. This equates to 589 new homes per year. This scenario will assist in the delivery of the Swansea Bay City Region Deal and the Council's Corporate Strategy, regeneration and job creation objectives.
8.8 Utilising this preferred option would positively progress the Council's ambitions in delivering affordable homes across the County.
8.9 The following outlines a number of possible Spatial Options which have been identified to inform the selection of our future spatial framework and how future growth may then be distributed across the County for the Plan period.
8.10 The consideration of strategic options is an important part in the preparation of the LDP is a requirement of the SA/SEA process.
8.11 Each spatial option has been subject to engagement to assess and evaluate their appropriateness with a view to establishing or developing a preferred option. Their content reflects the need to have regard to legislation, national planning policy, local and regional strategies whilst recognising the specific characteristics, assets and issues which are prevalent in Carmarthenshire and form a strategic approach which delivers on the vision and which promotes and guides development for the County.
8.12 In developing the options regard has also been had to the Well-Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the wellbeing objectives developed by Carmarthenshire County Council and the Public Service Board.
8.13 It should be noted that option generation is an important requirement of the SEA directive. The strategic options have been assessed against the SA/SEA within the Initial Sustainability Appraisal – Strategic Environmental Assessment Report. This forms an important component in the process of selecting the most suitable strategic option for Carmarthenshire.
8.14 The options identified assume that housing development without employment opportunities in the same broad location, and vice versa, is less sustainable and is to be avoided. Similarly, infrastructure improvements need to be aligned with new development, including improvements to transport networks, utilities, green infrastructure, health, education and social facilities. Consequently, the term 'development' is used in the Spatial Options for Growth to refer to the balance of housing, employment opportunities and the accompanying infrastructure.
8.15 No single option is necessarily considered preferable in their preparation and discussion and there is scope and flexibility for the options to be adapted to take account of additional factors. It is acknowledged that the preferred option could combine elements from more than one option.
8.16 The tables below provide an explanation of each of the spatial options as considered. This is followed by an identified Preferred Spatial Option.
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Description Utilising the settlement hierarchy to allow for a proportional distribution of development based on sustainability principles |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected This Option is based on the 4 tier settlement hierarchy. |
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Summary Assessment This option focusses growth proportionally across a hierarchy underpinned by the principles of sustainability. In doing so, this option:
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Conclusion This option represents a continuation of the existing LDP strategy and as such reference is had to the results of annual monitoring and the review report. Whilst both indicate successes in the application of the strategy they also identify weaknesses in the delivery of growth in aspects of the settlement hierarchy. It is recognised that elements of the strategy have been successful however, it is also clear that a review and revised approach may be needed to address not only its shortcomings but contextual changes. |
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Description Basing the majority of growth in the areas in the locality of the main highway and rail network and where there is infrastructure available to support the proposed development. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected This Option identifies key settlements and corridors along the main transport routes and areas where there is infrastructure in place or planned to be in place to accommodate the levels of growth required. |
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Summary Assessment This option looks at the existing provision of utility infrastructure and the highway network across the County and aims to focus the majority of growth in areas with the capacity for growth. This option seeks to encourage growth in the areas which it can most feasibly be accommodated by:
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Conclusion This option links growth and the settlement strategy directly to the availability of infrastructure. Whilst this would restrict the potential for growth in rural areas, it is recognised that the relationship between development and appropriate infrastructure provision is a component necessary as part of any selected option. |
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Description No rationale or structure for the distribution of growth; development would be dispersed across the County. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected All settlements could be affected equally under this Option as there is no strategy to identify the distribution of growth. However, this would be likely to result in levels of growth at a fairly equal level across the County's settlements. |
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Summary Assessment This option distributes housing, employment and other forms of development on a broad basis between settlements within the County, both urban and rural. It allows settlements to grow incrementally without necessarily taking account of the availability of services or facilities nor the impact which growth could have upon the existing communities and their capacity to accommodate and absorb growth. Compared to the strategy of the current adopted LDP, this option would see a higher proportion of the County's growth being directed to the rural areas and a lower proportion to the existing urban areas. |
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Conclusion This represents a largely unsustainable option and undeliverable option - and one which as a consequence would be unlikely to pass the necessary measures as part of the SA/SEA assessment process. This option does however through its broad brush approach to distribution of growth focus additional growth in rural areas. It is recognised that the chosen preferred option will be required to have appropriate regard to rural considerations. |
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Description Development would be dispersed within community areas in a manner which reflects the role which settlements play within those areas and the wider geographical area. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected The majority of the growth would be focussed in the following three areas: Carmarthen and surrounding area; Llanelli Coastal Belt; and, Ammanford / Cross Hands area. |
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Summary Assessment This option focusses on the role of settlements within their wider locality and community which acknowledges the relationships and interdependency between settlements and considers how the local communities work and live. This option will encourage growth in those areas which play a significant role in the wider community; this is most likely to be through the provision of facilities and services rather than the existing scale of the settlement or the existing population numbers. This option would also seek to reflect the needs of the communities, including their demand for housing. This acknowledges the individual characteristics of each settlement and seeks to identify the role which settlements play within their locality and on a county-wide basis. This option should reflect an understanding of the needs of local communities and focus growth in areas where it is needed to support communities and their aspirations for future growth and ongoing sustainability of facilities and services. This is likely to result in the allocation of smaller sites and a higher proportion of growth being directed to smaller settlements. |
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Conclusion This option seeks to be more responsive to individual aspects of the County and their communities. Whilst the perceived focus of growth would be in established centres it affords opportunity to reflect a wider distribution. Feedback indicates that the option would need to be appropriately balanced to ensure growth is distributed in an appropriate and deliverable manner. |
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Description Focusses growth to align with the areas identified for Swansea Bay City Deal projects. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected The majority of the growth would be focussed in the Llanelli and Carmarthen areas with those adjoining and adjacent areas also receiving a proportion of the growth. |
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Summary Assessment This option is focussed on the projects and investment planned as part of the Swansea Bay City Deal and channels growth to align with these geographical areas. The projects proposed for Carmarthenshire are:
This Option is likely to see the majority of growth being focussed in Carmarthen and Llanelli and the surrounding areas, however, the settlements further away from Carmarthen and Llanelli may potentially see very little growth. It may provide opportunities for spin-off investments and entrepreneurship based activities by building on the City Deal priorities. |
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Conclusion This option embraces, and is driven by the opportunities presented through the City Deal. It focuses on the locations of the 2 main projects within Carmarthenshire and as such would be less inclusive of the remainder of the County. It should however be recognised that reflecting the potential of the City Deal to effect real change is essential in any preferred option. |
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Description Focusses growth in the areas which have proven most popular with the housing market over recent years. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected Growth would be focussed in the top tier of the adopted LDP's settlement hierarchy comprising Carmarthen, Llanelli and Ammanford / Cross Hands areas. |
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Summary Assessment This option will aim to meet the aspirations and requirements of the development industry by identifying sites and areas which are the most economically attractive to develop. This option looks at the market success of settlements within the County since 2008 and apportions growth in accordance with past delivery rates. The past delivery rates indicate that the majority of growth took place in the Llanelli area with a significant amount of development also being directed to the Carmarthen growth area and parts of the Ammanford/Cross Hands growth area. This approach could be construed as 'planning based on numbers'. It would seek to direct growth in accordance with the highest delivery rates of the past and apply this trend to identify the location for future development. Future employment provision would reflect current take-up of employment land and would relate closely to the distribution of housing. |
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Conclusion This option through its focus on the market would, whilst deliverable in a simplistic interpretation, be vulnerable to other considerations and constraints and would remove substantively any local influence. It is not considered a deliverable option in practicable terms but points clearly to the role of the market and development industry in contributing to a sound and deliverable plan. The role of the market will inevitably be a contributing to the development of the preferred option. |
8.17. The development of the preferred option has emerged from the consideration of the spatial options and other considerations, including but not limited to:
- the well-being objectives;
- the content of the Annual Monitoring Reports and Review Report; and,
- the engagement processes notably through the Key Stakeholder Forum.
8.18 In developing the preferred option, there was always an acceptance that there would be potential variations on the strategic options identified, including an option which would consider a mix of the positive outcomes from a number of those options. In considering the above, and having reference to the Issues, Objectives and Vision discussed earlier in the Preferred Strategy, a hybrid option emerged as the most appropriate approach in delivering a balanced and sustainable spatial strategy for all the communities across the County.
8.19 The following hybrid option has consequently emerged which reflects a number of characteristics from the identified options above. This emergence is in part, built from comments received as part of the engagement process.
Preferred Option - Balanced Community and Sustainable Growth Strategy
8.20 This hybrid option builds on the approach highlighted through Strategic Option 4 - Community Led, but removes the prescriptive approach in assigning character areas within the County. The strategy will however retain an approach which reflects the role and function of settlements and will seek to be responsive in how it assigns growth, to urban and rural areas of the County.
- The option will recognise and reflect investment and economic benefits to the County and its communities through the City Deal, and other economic opportunities.
- It will seek to provide opportunities for rural areas ensuring the diversity of the County and communities is recognised;
- It will acknowledge that in delivering sustainable growth that it needs to be supported by the availability of a range of appropriate infrastructure;
- It will recognise that growth should be deliverable and orientated to a community's needs and market demand.
[26] Regional Local Housing Market Assessment is being undertaken which will inform the revised LDP as it progresses through the preparatory process.