Preferred Strategy
9. Strategic Growth and Spatial Options
9.1 To inform the future direction of population and household growth within Carmarthenshire, the Council has undertaken a Population and Household Forecast Paper which highlights various population-led and employment-led growth options scenarios for the revised LDP period of 2018-2033. Each scenario is considered against the 2011 Census vacancy rate, in addition to a variant vacancy rate calculated from Carmarthenshire's council tax records, which is calculated as 3.4%.
9.2 The Population and Household Forecast Paper also identifies the links between population growth and estimated employment growth. This is correlated by identifying how population growth and variances in the labour force and demographics supports job opportunities and economic growth.
9.3 The starting point for the analysis of future growth outcomes for Carmarthenshire is through the Welsh Government's (WG) 2014-based population and household projections. The 2014-based projections are the latest available. They incorporate the ONS 2014 mid-year population estimate, plus fertility, mortality and migration assumptions based on an historical five-year period prior to 2014.
9.4 The 2014-based projections are notably lower than that estimated under each of the previous WG projections. This is because they are based on a 5 year period of lower net in-migration, particularly given the impact of the recession, whilst household sizes have not decreased as quickly as previously considered. It would see a high percentage increase of 65+ year old persons which would provide a real challenge for the delivery of health and social care services within the County.
9.5 Housing build rates within Carmarthenshire since 2007 have been (on average) 493 houses per year. Adopting the 2014-based projection as the Preferred Strategy would result in a far lower level of growth with on average 231 dwellings per annum using the Census vacancy rate, or 224 dwellings per annum on the alternative vacancy rate being required for the revised LDP period of 2018-2033.
9.6 It is recognised that there is a link between providing for new houses and new jobs. The 2014-based projection would stifle any future development opportunity for the county and would mean that the Corporate drive for new employment growth would not be met, and be in conflict with other elements of the LDP strategy.
9.7 This scenario would have a significant impact on the labour force within Carmarthenshire resulting in a net outflow of workers and residents from the County. This scenario would estimate a negative job creation value of -55 per year.
9.8 Using this growth trend as the Preferred Strategy for Carmarthenshire would adversely impact upon the Council's strategic ambitions from both an economic and social perspective. Furthermore given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the WG 2014-based projection in the revised LDP Preferred Strategy.
9.9 Using this scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
9.10 The forecast paper highlights 5 other demographic scenario options of population and household growth for Carmarthenshire – each considering various statistics to inform a potential growth trend within the county.
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|
Change 2018-2033 |
Average per year |
Total Dwelling Growth (Census VR) |
Total Dwelling Growth (ALT. VR) |
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|
Scenario |
Population Change |
Population Change % |
Household Change |
Household Change % |
Net Migration |
Dwellings (Census VR) |
Dwellings (ALT. VR) |
||
|
PG Pre-Recession |
26,811 |
14.2% |
13,616 |
16.6% |
2,028 |
969 |
939 |
14,529 |
14,090 |
|
PG Long Term |
17,567 |
9.4% |
9,555 |
11.7% |
1,423 |
680 |
659 |
10,195 |
9,887 |
|
PG 10yr |
11,755 |
6.3% |
6,992 |
8.6% |
1,043 |
497 |
482 |
7,461 |
7,236 |
|
PG Short Term |
10,691 |
5.7% |
6,807 |
8.4% |
997 |
484 |
470 |
7,263 |
7,044 |
|
(WG 2014 (10yr Average Migration |
10,842 |
5.8% |
6,322 |
7.7% |
921 |
450 |
436 |
6,746 |
6,542 |
|
WG 2014 based |
3,207 |
1.7% |
3,254 |
4.0% |
546 |
231 |
224 |
3,472 |
3,367 |
WG 2014-based (10 year average migration) projection
9.11 This projection utilises the WG 2014-based natural change assumptions but also considers the 10 year migration period between 2003/2004 and 2012/13. This trend uses a migration period prior to, and post-recession, which would see a population and household change of 5.8% and 7.7% respectively during the plan period of 2018-2033. The housing requirement within this scenario (2011 Census vacancy rate) would equate to 450 dwellings per year, which would be less than that currently being built within Carmarthenshire on an average yearly basis. This equates to 6,746 dwellings over the LDP period 2018-2033.
In considering this projection against the variant vacancy rate of 3.4%, the dwelling requirement within this scenario reduces to 436 dwellings per year. This equates to 6,542 dwellings over the LDP period 2018-2033.
9.12 This scenario would estimate the creation of 198 additional jobs per year, far less than that considered within the Carmarthenshire's Strategic Regeneration Plan.
9.13 Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise both variant scenarios of the WG 2014-based (10 year average migration) projection as the growth option for the revised LDP Preferred Strategy. It would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
9.14 Both variant scenarios would limit Carmarthenshire's economic ambitions in terms of job creation and keeping younger adults within the County to live and work.
9.15 The Population Growth (PG) Short Term scenario utilises part of the WG 2014-based projection migration data, however it also uses the three years of data up to 2016/2017. This scenario increases the population and household change percentage from that in the 2014-based projection, but the outflow of those within the 15-19 age cohort increases. The PG short term trend increases the net migration inflow of all ages from 30+ years, but it would still see a negative population percentage change within the under 65 age cohorts.
9.16 Utilising the 2011 Census vacancy rate, this scenario would, on average deliver 484 dwellings per year within the Revised LDP period, or 470 dwellings per year under the variant vacancy rate. This equates to 7,263 dwellings and 7,044 dwellings over the revised LDP period respectively. This is notably less than that currently being built within Carmarthenshire on an annual basis. Whilst there is a net inflow in the 30 + age cohorts, the rate of growth would be slower and limit the economic potential of the authority. This reinforces some of the issues highlighted in terms of economic ambition and having balanced age cohorts within the county.
9.17 In terms of the link between population change and job creation, this scenario would support the creation of 126 additional jobs per year, but would fall short of the targets outlined in Carmarthenshire's Strategic Regeneration Plan.
9.18 Given the potential negative impacts highlighted above, it is not considered prudent to utilise the PG Short Term projection as the growth option for the Preferred Strategy. It would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
9.19 The PG 10 year projection utilises the migration trend of the previous 10 years, which takes into account the first two years of the pre-recession period, but with the majority of the migration data being since 2008. This trend offers a slightly more optimistic outlook than that considered in the 10 year migration data from the WG 2014-based projection, and similar to the PG Short term Scenario. This scenario does identify the net out-migration of those in the 15-19 and 25-29 age cohorts, with comparable net in-migration in the 30+ year old cohorts.
9.20 Utilising the 2011 Census vacancy, this scenario would, on average provide 497 dwellings per annum within the revised LDP period 2018-2033, with the variant vacancy rate highlighting a provision of 482 dwellings per year. This equates to 7,461 dwellings and 7,236 dwellings over the revised LDP period respectively.
9.21 In terms of the link between population change and job creation, this scenario would support the creation of 178 jobs per year, but would fall short of the targets outlined in the Carmarthenshire's Strategic Regeneration Plan, and only marginally cover the job requirements set out within the Swansea Bay City Deal.
9.22 Whilst the delivery of 497 or 482 dwellings per year is similar to that delivered since 2007, it does not offer the flexibility to pick up on those years where housing delivery and the housing market has been more buoyant. Since 2015, housing delivery has been on average 545 dwellings per year and restricting the housing requirement through this scenario as the Preferred Strategy would limit Carmarthenshire's economic ambitions in terms of job creation and provide opportunities for younger adults within the County to live and work. This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
9.23 Under the PG Long Termscenario, higher net migration flows are estimated (averaging +1,423 people per year), resulting in population change (9.4%) and subsequent dwelling growth of 680 dwellings per year (2011 Census vacancy rate) or 659 dwellings per year (variant vacancy rate). This equates to 10,195 dwellings and 9,887 dwellings over the revised LDP period respectively.
9.24 This is higher than estimated under the PG Short Term and WG 2014-basedscenarios. Whilst the PG Long Termscenario captures the significantly higher net migration flows over the 2001/02–2007/08 period in its assumptions, the notably lower net migration recorded to 2016/17 has a dampening effect on its migration assumptions.
9.25 The age cohort of net migration and population change within this scenario shows much more of a positive outlook. There is a net positive migration in all age cohorts bar the 15-19 years, however there is a decrease in the population change between 25-34 age cohort and 50-59 age cohort. The PG Long Termscenario would provide a more optimistic outlook in seeking to achieve the targets outlined in Carmarthenshire's Strategic Regeneration Plan with a larger population increase supporting the creation of approximately 353 additional jobs per year.
9.26 On balance, utilising this scenario as the Preferred Strategy would provide a positive outlook and provide an appropriate provision for housing delivery within the county. It would allow the flexibility to drive sustainable housing growth and support the economic ambitions of the county.
9.27 Whilst utilising a scenario with higher population growth will see a continuation of people aged 15-19 leaving the county, more return in the 20-24 age cohort which results in a balanced demographic outlook for the county in the future.
9.28 Using this scenario would assist in delivering the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
Population Growth Pre-Recession Scenario
9.29 The PG Pre-Recession scenariois based oninternal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions for the period pre-2008 recession (2001/02–2007/08), in which higher in-migration flows to Carmarthenshire were recorded. Consequently, future estimation of net migration is highest under the PG Pre-Recessionscenario. Utilising the 2011 Census vacancy, this scenario would, on average provide 969 dwellings per annum within the revised LDP period 2018-2033, with the variant vacancy rate highlighting a provision of 939 dwellings per year. This equates to 14,529 dwellings and 14,090 dwellings over the revised LDP period respectively.
9.30 Whilst utilising a scenario with higher population growth will see a continuation of people aged 15-19 leaving the county, more return in the 20-24 age cohort which results in a balanced demographic outlook for the county. There would also be a significant population change that would see a 40% increase in the 65+ age cohort, whilst an 82% increase in the 80+ age cohort.
9.31 The PG Pre-Recessionscenario would provide a positive outlook in seeking to achieve the targets outlined in Carmarthenshire's Strategic Regeneration Plan and the Swansea Bay City Deal, with a larger population increase supporting the creation of approximately 632 jobs per year.
9.32 Utilising this projection scenario as the revised LDP Preferred Strategy would be commensurate to the growth strategy within the adopted LDP. Whilst this scenario would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement through the PG Pre-Recession scenario would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy.
9.33 This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives.
Commuting Ratio Fixed (CR Fixed) and Commuting Ratio Reducing (CR Reducing)
9.34 The Population and Household Forecast Paper identifies two employment-led scenarios as a basis for considering housing growth within the County. The benchmark job requirements comes from the Carmarthenshire Employment Sectoral Study which identifies that to maximise the economic ability of the county, 1,245 jobs per year would need to be created in nine priority sectors[19].
9.35 In meeting the target of 1,245 jobs per year highlighted in the Employment Sectoral Study, population growth within the county would need to be sizable. The population growth within the scenarios CR Fixed and CR Reducing would need to equate to 42,050 and 36,481 persons respectively. In translating this to the number of dwellings required during the revised LDP period, this would equate 1,354 and 1,196 dwellings per year using the 2011 Census vacancy. This would equate to 20,303 and 17,938 dwellings over the revised LDP.
9.36 Using the 3.4% vacancy rate, this would equate to CR Fixed scenario highlighting 1,313 dwellings per year, or 19,690 dwellings over the revised LDP period, whilst CR Reducing scenario identifies 1,160 dwellings per year or 17,396 dwellings over the revised LDP period.
9.37 Utilising the employment-led scenarios as the Preferred Strategy for the revised LDP and the high growth requirement set out within it would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy for the county. The housing growth requirement set out in the adopted LDP is 1,013 dwellings per year, and one of the reasons to undertake a LDP review was to reconsider this housing requirement as the housing growth targets were not being achieved.
9.38 Whilst these scenarios would be ambitious in driving economic aspirations, setting such a high growth requirement would result in an undeliverable and unsustainable growth strategy
9.39 This scenario would not deliver the Plan's Vision and Strategic Objectives
Identifying the Preferred Strategic Growth Option
9.40 The identification of the preferred strategic growth option has emerged from the consideration of the above population and household projections, as a consequence of pre-deposit engagement and the need to reach a balanced outcome including other strategies and plans such as, but not limited to:
- Welsh Government - Planning Policy Wales;
- The Council's Strategic Regeneration Plan 2015 – 2030 – Transformations;
- Swansea Bay City Deal;
- The Council's New Corporate Strategy 2018 – 2023;
- The Carmarthenshire Well-being Plan: the Carmarthenshire we want 2018-2033;
- The Council's Well-being Objectives;
- The Council's Affordable Housing Delivery Plan; and
- Local Housing Market Assessment[20], and
- The Council's Moving Forward in Carmarthenshire: the next 5 years.
9.41 It is proposed to use the PG Long Term scenario and utilise the alternative vacancy rate of 3.4% to underpin the future growth requirements for this revised LDP. This scenario projects an overall population increase of 17,567 (9.4%), with the requirement for 9,887 new homes over the revised LDP period 2018-2033. This equates to 659 new homes per year. This scenario will assist in the delivery of the Swansea Bay City Region Deal and the Council's Corporate Strategy, regeneration and job creation objectives.
9.42 Utilising this preferred option would positively progress the Council's ambitions in delivering affordable homes across the County.
9.43 The Preferred Strategy through this growth option will seek to support the delivery of a minimum of 5,295 additional jobs over the Plan period.
9.44 The following outlines a number of possible Spatial Options which have been identified to inform the selection of our future spatial framework and how future growth may then be distributed across the County for the Plan period.
9.45 The consideration of strategic options is an important part in the preparation of the LDP is a requirement of the SA/SEA process.
9.46 Each spatial option has been subject to engagement to assess and evaluate their appropriateness with a view to establishing or developing a preferred option. Their content reflects the need to have regard to legislation, national planning policy, local and regional strategies whilst recognising the specific characteristics, assets and issues which are prevalent in Carmarthenshire and form a strategic approach which delivers on the vision and which promotes and guides development for the County.
9.47 In developing the options regard has also been had to the Well-Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 and the wellbeing objectives developed by Carmarthenshire County Council and the Public Service Board.
9.48 It should be noted that option generation is an important requirement of the SEA directive. The strategic options have been assessed against the SA/SEA within the Initial Sustainability Appraisal – Strategic Environmental Assessment Report. This forms an important component in the process of selecting the most suitable strategic option for Carmarthenshire.
9.49 The options identified assume that housing development without employment opportunities in the same broad location, and vice versa, is less sustainable and is to be avoided. Similarly, infrastructure improvements need to be aligned with new development, including improvements to transport networks, utilities, green infrastructure, health, education and social facilities. Consequently, the term 'development' is used in the Spatial Options for Growth to refer to the balance of housing, employment opportunities and the accompanying infrastructure.
9.50 No single option is necessarily considered preferable in their preparation and discussion and there is scope and flexibility for the options to be adapted to take account of additional factors. It is acknowledged that the preferred option could combine elements from more than one option.
9.51 The tables below
provide an explanation of each of the spatial options as
considered. This is followed by an identified Preferred
Spatial Option for consideration as part of this Preferred
Strategy.
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Description Utilising the settlement hierarchy to allow for a proportional distribution of development based on sustainability principles |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected This Option is based on the 4 tier settlement hierarchy. |
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Summary Assessment This option focusses growth proportionally across a hierarchy underpinned by the principles of sustainability. In doing so, this option:
Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This option represents a continuation of the existing LDP strategy and as such reference is had to the results of annual monitoring and the review report. Whilst both indicate successes in the application of the strategy they also identify weaknesses in the delivery of growth in aspects of the settlement hierarchy. It is recognised that elements of the strategy have been successful however, it is also clear that a review and revised approach may be needed to address not only its shortcomings but contextual changes. |
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Description Basing the majority of growth in the areas in the locality of the main highway and rail network and where there is infrastructure available to support the proposed development. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected This Option identifies key settlements and corridors along the main transport routes and areas where there is infrastructure in place or planned to be in place to accommodate the levels of growth required. |
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Summary Assessment This option looks at the existing provision of utility infrastructure and the highway network across the County and aims to focus the majority of growth in areas with the capacity for growth. This option seeks to encourage growth in the areas which it can most feasibly be accommodated by:
Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This option links growth and the settlement strategy directly to the availability of infrastructure. Whilst this would restrict the potential for growth in rural areas, it is recognised that the relationship between development and appropriate infrastructure provision is a component necessary as part of any selected option. |
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Description No rationale or structure for the distribution of growth; development would be dispersed across the County. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected All settlements could be affected equally under this Option as there is no strategy to identify the distribution of growth. However, this would be likely to result in levels of growth at a fairly equal level across the County's settlements. |
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Summary Assessment This option distributes housing, employment and other forms of development on a broad basis between settlements within the County, both urban and rural. It allows settlements to grow incrementally without necessarily taking account of the availability of services or facilities nor the impact which growth could have upon the existing communities and their capacity to accommodate and absorb growth. Compared to the strategy of the current adopted LDP, this option would see a higher proportion of the County's growth being directed to the rural areas and a lower proportion to the existing urban areas. Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This represents a largely unsustainable option and undeliverable option - and one which as a consequence would be unlikely to pass the necessary measures as part of the SA/SEA assessment process. This option does however through its broad brush approach to distribution of growth focus additional growth in rural areas. It is recognised that the chosen preferred option will be required to have appropriate regard to rural considerations. |
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Description Development would be dispersed within community areas in a manner which reflects the role which settlements play within those areas and the wider geographical area. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected The majority of the growth would be focussed in the following three areas: Carmarthen and surrounding area; Llanelli Coastal Belt; and, Ammanford / Cross Hands area. |
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Summary Assessment This option focusses on the role of settlements within their wider locality and community which acknowledges the relationships and interdependency between settlements and considers how the local communities work and live. This option will encourage growth in those areas which play a significant role in the wider community; this is most likely to be through the provision of facilities and services rather than the existing scale of the settlement or the existing population numbers. This option would also seek to reflect the needs of the communities, including their demand for housing. This acknowledges the individual characteristics of each settlement and seeks to identify the role which settlements play within their locality and on a county-wide basis. This option should reflect an understanding of the needs of local communities and focus growth in areas where it is needed to support communities and their aspirations for future growth and ongoing sustainability of facilities and services. This is likely to result in the allocation of smaller sites and a higher proportion of growth being directed to smaller settlements. Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This option seeks to be more responsive to individual aspects of the County and their communities. Whilst the perceived focus of growth would be in established centres it affords opportunity to reflect a wider distribution. Feedback indicates that the option would need to be appropriately balanced to ensure growth is distributed in an appropriate and deliverable manner. |
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Description Focusses growth to align with the areas identified for Swansea Bay City Deal projects. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected The majority of the growth would be focussed in the Llanelli and Carmarthen areas with those adjoining and adjacent areas also receiving a proportion of the growth. |
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Summary Assessment This option is focussed on the projects and investment planned as part of the Swansea Bay City Deal and channels growth to align with these geographical areas. The projects proposed for Carmarthenshire are:
This Option is likely to see the majority of growth being focussed in Carmarthen and Llanelli and the surrounding areas, however, the settlements further away from Carmarthen and Llanelli may potentially see very little growth. It may provide opportunities for spin-off investments and entrepreneurship based activities by building on the City Deal priorities. Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This option embraces, and is driven by the opportunities presented through the City Deal. It focuses on the locations of the 2 main projects within Carmarthenshire and as such would be less inclusive of the remainder of the County. It should however be recognised that reflecting the potential of the City Deal to effect real change is essential in any preferred option. |
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Description Focusses growth in the areas which have proven most popular with the housing market over recent years. |
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Spatial Expression / Settlements Affected Growth would be focussed in the top tier of the adopted LDP's settlement hierarchy comprising Carmarthen, Llanelli and Ammanford / Cross Hands areas. |
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Summary Assessment This option will aim to meet the aspirations and requirements of the development industry by identifying sites and areas which are the most economically attractive to develop. This option looks at the market success of settlements within the County since 2008 and apportions growth in accordance with past delivery rates. The past delivery rates indicate that the majority of growth took place in the Llanelli area with a significant amount of development also being directed to the Carmarthen growth area and parts of the Ammanford/Cross Hands growth area. This approach could be construed as 'planning based on numbers'. It would seek to direct growth in accordance with the highest delivery rates of the past and apply this trend to identify the location for future development. Future employment provision would reflect current take-up of employment land and would relate closely to the distribution of housing. Positives
Negatives
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Conclusions This option through its focus on the market would, whilst deliverable in a simplistic interpretation, be vulnerable to other considerations and constraints and would remove substantively any local influence. It is not considered a deliverable option in practicable terms but points clearly to the role of the market and development industry in contributing to a sound and deliverable plan. The role of the market will inevitably be a contributing to the development of the preferred option. |
Identifying the Preferred Spatial Option
9.52 The development of the preferred option has emerged from the consideration of the spatial options and other considerations, including but not limited to:
- the well-being objectives;
- the content of the Annual Monitoring Reports and Review Report; and,
- the engagement processes notably through the Key Stakeholder Forum.
9.53 In developing the preferred option, there was always an acceptance that there would be potential variations on the strategic options identified, including an option which would consider a mix of the positive outcomes from a number of those options. In considering the above, and having reference to the Issues, Objectives and Vision discussed earlier in the Preferred Strategy, a hybrid option emerged as the most appropriate approach in delivering a balanced and sustainable spatial strategy for all the communities across the County.
9.54 The following hybrid option has consequently emerged which reflects a number of characteristics from the identified options above. This emergence is in part, built from comments received as part of the engagement process.
Preferred Option - Balanced Community and Sustainable Growth Strategy.
9.55 This hybrid option builds on the approach highlighted through Strategic Option 4 - Community Led, but removes the prescriptive approach in assigning character areas within the County. The strategy will however retain an approach which reflects the role and function of settlements and will seek to be responsive in how it assigns growth, to urban and rural areas of the County.
- The option will recognise and reflect investment and economic benefits to the County and its communities through the City Deal, and other economic opportunities.
- It will seek to provide opportunities for rural areas ensuring the diversity of the County and communities is recognised;
- It will acknowledge that in delivering sustainable growth that it needs to be supported by the availability of a range of appropriate infrastructure;
- It will recognise that growth should be deliverable and orientated to a community's needs and market demand.