11.484

The Onshore Wind Target to deliver 588.5 MW of additional installed capacity by 2033 is in our view unrealistic given there has not been a call for sites for wind power. A reconsidered approach to this policy is required.

Table 9 Resource Summary for Renewable Electricity. The Onshore Wind Target to deliver 588.5 MW of additional installed capacity by 2033 is in our view unrealistic given there has not been a call for sites for wind power. By our calculations, extrapolating from the evidence base document, AECOM Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Assessment Section 4.3, delivery of this target may require 75% of the area unconstrained by features such as buildings, roads and rivers in the Pre-Assessed Area in north Carmarthenshire to be developed for onshore wind. Given the mix of landowners and small scale farms across this area, delivery of the target may be challenging without large scale land purchases, which would not be feasible or desirable for smaller scale community wind developers. This policy is likely to result in more large scale multi-national corporation wind farm developments across Carmarthenshire. This is notwithstanding the scale of significant adverse impacts, including cumulative impacts, on the landscape a target like this will create.

NB: The AECOM assessment estimates that the Pre-Assessed Area in Carmarthenshire, identified in Future Wales 2040, covers an area of 687 km2. The report assumes a maximum of 5 2MW turbines per 1km2 of land. Applications for new onshore wind at scale is more likely to be focused within the Pre-Assessed Areas due to the favourable planning framework for these locations. The Revised LDP target for installed capacity is an additional 588.5 MW, which using AECOM’s calculations would need to cover a land area of 58.85 Km2, or, 14,542 acres, equivalent to 8.5% of the Pre-Assessed Area. Taking into account the expected delivery of the remaining capacity in the former TAN 8 SSA, there is the expectation that 54.83 km2 will be delivered on a total possible unconstrained area of 73.1km2, or 75% of the unconstrained land in the Pre-Assessed Area. For the purposes of the AECOM study the constrains are National Parks, Natura 2000 sites, Buildings, Roads, Rivers, the TAN8 SSA and Topple Distance buffers applied to buildings, roads and rivers. Calculations taken from data within page 29 and 30 of the AECOM Renewable and Low Carbon Energy Assessment published in the LDP Evidence Base.